AL Team Buyers and Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline

The MLB Trade Deadline is less than a week away and there are teams in the American League that have some decisions to make. Do we go all in or do we sell for the future? I have put the teams into buckets of teams that need to go all in, teams that need to buy but with caution and those that should just pack it in for the year.

All-In Buyers

Tampa Bay Rays

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The Tampa Bay Rays got off to a historic start and seems primed to head back to the Fall Classic. The website FanGraphs is giving the Rays an 11.1% chance of winning the World Series, which is the best in the American League and 3rd overall in baseball. But a brutal July (a 7-game losing streak and a 1-7 record in their last 8 games) has the Rays currently 2 games out of 1st place behind the Orioles.

This is a young team that rarely buys at the deadline and they have a bright young future ahead. Do they hold firm on the young talent like Yandy Díaz and Isaac Paredes? Or do the Rays take advantage of this year’s start and add to a depleted pitching staff? I would vote for the latter and go all in after P Marcus Stroman from the Cubs.

Texas Rangers

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A lot of what I said about the Rays also applies to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have exceeded expectations so far to lead the AL West by 3 games as of July 24th. This is after their big offseason acquisition, star pitcher Jacob DeGrom, went down with a season-ending injury. The Rangers lead the AL West, but the Astros are coming for them. The Rangers will need every advantage they can get to fight them off.

The pitching staff can use an upgrade as the Rangers sport one of the better lineups in the league. Grabbing relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman was a smart move to boost the bullpen. It’s a tough situation because this is a good team and the farm system is primed to keep this team in contention for a while. But if they can get a quality arm on the cheap, I’d go all in.

Baltimore Orioles

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I’ve said it on multiple shows on our podcast, the Baltimore Orioles are one of the feel good stories in baseball. A city that has been starving to get this team back into the playoffs finally has a good team. After taking 3 of 4 games from the Tampa Bay Rays, this team now has a firm grip on first place and a 61-38 record through July 24th. But should Baltimore dip into their farm system to add to their ballclub?

Hell yes! This is the best case scenario for the Orioles right now. This team has been driven by young talent like Adley Rutschman, and the scary part is they have more on the way. The O’s are contending now and playing with house money. They should look to make additions, maybe a starting pitcher on an expiring contract. But the key is to not add an expensive piece, like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, at expense to their key players that they will build their future around.

Buyer’s Beware

Toronto Blue Jays

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The Toronto Blue Jays are interesting because this team should be where the Orioles are right now. They have as talented of a lineup as any team in the league, and their pitching staff has held up all year. They are in the top 10 in team batting average and team ERA. But as of writing this article, they are currently 6 games behind the surging Orioles and 1 game behind the Astros as they are in the 3rd Wild Card position. The Red Sox and Yankees are 2 games behind them and should make their move any minute now.

The Blue Jays don’t necessarily need to make a huge splash to improve their team, but that’s exactly what they need to make a move in the standings. They need to go after the big fish like Scherzer, Verlander, or Stroman. But they should realistically go after Jordan Hicks or Justin Lawrence to hedge their bets.

New York Yankees

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The New York Yankees, if they were called any other team but the Yankees, should be selling at the deadline. This team has been a pathetic shell of themselves with an inconsistent bullpen and no hitting. Their big bats like DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton have struggled all year to produce. Not even firing hitting coach Dillon Lawson could save this lineup that is half filled with minor leaguers. They are waiting for their savior Aaron Judge to return to save this lineup, but that may not be enough.

GM Brian Cashman’s job should be to get under that luxury tax threshold, sell off Donaldson, Luis Severino and more to retool for 2024 like they did in 2016. But a bloated salary roster and high expectations in New York means they need to go hard for Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and anyone they can get their hands on. They need fresh faces and not just waiting for the reinforcements to arrive.

Houston Astros

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The Astros are heading into a big series with the division leading Texas Rangers as they are 3 games back of 1st place. They will need to make a move or two to catch the Rangers. The Astros have said in recent days that they are looking to upgrade their roster. GM Dana Brown said they want to add both starting pitching and bullpen arms before the deadline.

The Astros have been linked to the Chicago Cubs for both Stroman and Bellinger as potential upgrades. They might not be able to add enough help to catch the Rangers without gutting their team. But they should be able to secure a Wild Card by making a smart move or two at the deadline.

Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox have kind of exceeded expectations so far, they are in a playoff race that they didn’t expect to be in. They were looking for a bounce back season from ace pitcher Chris Sale while watching J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts leave in the offseason. The moves they made, or didn’t make, suggested they weren’t going for it in 2023. But they are 2 games behind the last Wild Card spot with the hated Yankees and they have a good shot of sneaking into the playoffs.

The Red Sox are close enough to the postseason race to make a move, but they have some talent in the farm system that they need to consider holding. They should honestly fight to get in but really do a “buy and sell” deadline dance this week. They should flip Adam Duvall or James Paxton to add to their farm system while maybe nabbing an expiring contract. Paxton has started the most games this season than he has the last 3 years, so his value is high.

We’ll get ‘em next year

Cleveland Guardians

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The Cleveland Guardians could easily go on a run to challenge in the weak AL Central. After a surprise 2022 season that saw them in the playoffs, this season has been a step back. They are only 3 games out of 1st place behind the Twins, but they are under .500 at 49-50. They have shown a little life and after getting swept by the Rangers, they have taken series from the Phillies and Pirates.

But this is the AL Central we are talking about here. You can watch the Guardians play and see this isn’t a playoff team. They should look to sell off pitcher Shane Bieber to a contender, get a solid return and reload for 2024-25.

Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners should not be on this list as a “get ‘em next year” team. They shouldn’t be in the market to retool for 2024, but they just don’t have many other options. The Mariners have a really strong pitching staff with stud arms like Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. They also have some arms in the farm system or some rookies that can contribute in a year or two.

But the biggest issue is their offense has been awful this year. Their veterans like Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suarez have struggled while star Julio Rodríguez is officially in a sophomore slump. The Mariners are definitely not moving Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby or Rodríguez. The only option is to sell off some relief pitchers or the expiring contract of Teoscar Hernández to jump start the search for offensive firepower in 2024.

Los Angeles Angels

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This pick for me as all about the franchise that has failed their two stars in Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Angels have a huge problem on their hands with the MVP fronter Ohtani; do they sell him to get assets or not sell him to potentially lose him in the offseason. Their chances of making the playoffs with Ohtani and Mike Trout are 50/50, it’s good one week then bad the next week. They are 2 games over .500, 8 games back in the AL West and 4 games back of the last Wild Card.

The Angels need to make a run but don’t have anything in the form of pitching to make a serious run. But they run the risk of losing Ohtani in the offseason anyway, even if they make any trade moves at the deadline. If they sell Ohtani, the fan base will never forgive them but they can get a king’s ransom for him. They can rebuild this team and have a future with at least 2-3 to level prospects. If Ohtani isn’t dealt and this team doesn’t make the playoffs, he might bolt for a new team and then the Angels will have nothing to show for it. They should sell Trout before he really starts to decline, try to see what’s out there for Ohtani and really think hard about how they will look in the next few seasons. Teams are all starting to check in on his availability, so this might be the time.